AI safety fears, rising oil prices, a big season for prediction markets and more in Morning Squawk

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Happy Monday. While I was keeping busy as a groomsman in a wedding in Michigan, artificial intelligence executives were busy making big business and policy moves.

Stock futures are lower this morning. The three major averages are coming off a losing week.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

Concerns about the safety of artificial intelligence hit a fever pitch over the weekend after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei wrote in an essay that AI companies should "slow the pace" of improving their AI models.

Here's what to know:

Crude oil prices are higher this morning after Saudi Arabia closed a key pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, citing damage sustained by drones launched from Iraq. The Saudis have not said how bad the damage was or for how long the closure would last.

The East-West pipeline can carry 7 million barrels of oil per day and has helped alleviate some of the supply crunch brought about by the Iran war. A diplomatic meeting on Hormuz between Iran and the Gulf Arab states scheduled for Monday was postponed following the attack on the pipeline.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures and Brent crude futures both rose by more than 3% this morning. Last week, U.S. crude's per-barrel price surpassed $100 for the first time since May as fighting in the Middle East ratcheted up.

Analysts expect the U.S. will reach its $41.1 trillion debt ceiling sometime next year, at which point Congress will either need to raise it or suspend it before the Treasury Department runs out of measures to stop the U.S. from entering what would be a catastrophic default.

As CNBC's Garrett Downs reports, the outcome of November's election could shape the path to fixing the problem. If Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress, they could leverage averting the debt ceiling to score policy wins from President Donald Trump.

Plus, Trump's recent promise for a $5,000 dividend for every American adult if Republicans keep control of the House and Senate in November could bring the U.S. to its limit even faster. Some Republicans said they would not lift the ceiling without significant cuts to government spending.

Inflation is once again increasing faster than wages are growing. As a result, many Americans have less purchasing power and are, as one economist put it, "worse off."

Consumer prices climbed 3.4% in August from the same month a year prior, according to U.S. government data released Friday. Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% over the same time frame.

As CNBC's Deena Zaidi reports, higher energy costs due to the war are partly to blame. A 3.9% jump in gasoline prices in August was responsible for more than a third of the consumer price index's increase. On top of that, AI could also be putting pressure on paychecks.

Prediction markets are betting on another boom as football season and election season both kick into high gear.

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are entering the fall bigger than ever before, with major events like a presidential election and sporting events driving adoption in recent years. Now, as the start of the NFL season and the ramp-up to the midterm elections coincide, prediction market companies are readying for what Robinhood's JB Mackenzie called "a bit of a supercycle."

As CNBC's Davis Giangiulio writes, other events like this week's Federal Reserve meeting and October's MLB playoffs could also aid demand. The next few months could be make-or-break for smaller players in the space hoping to earn staying power.

Here's what we're watching this week:

— CNBC's Ashley Capoot, Kate Rooney, Garrett Downs, Arjun Kharpal, Sean Conlon, Elsa Ohlen, Justina Lee, Lee Ying Shan, Spencer Kimball, Deena Zaidi and Davis Giangiulio contributed to this report.

Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.