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Flight cancellations in Europe will begin “soon” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid the Iran war: that was the stark warning yesterday from Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency.
I hesitate to contradict a top energy expert, but I know for a fact that cancellations have already started. That’s because I am writing to you at dawn on Friday morning from Gatwick airport, rather than London City. Aurigny, the airline of Guernsey, cancelled my original flight from the Docklands airport.
The reason: “Significant increases in global oil prices are now filtering through to aviation.”
I was offered my money back or a free switch to a flight at a similar time from Gatwick. I gladly accepted the latter. When fuel is getting scarce as well as expensive, it makes sense to fly one full aircraft rather than two half-empty planes.
Just how scarce, though, is that increasingly precious kerosene? Mr Birol is reported as saying Europe has only around six weeks of jet fuel supply left – potentially plunging summer holidays into chaos. But last evening when I should have been writing to you, I was instead contemplating which Greek islands to explore this summer (settling on Mykonos and its near neighbours). Looking at prices for June and July, it is clear this is an excellent time to buy.
Yesterday the two biggest budget airlines, Ryanair and easyJet, said no fuel problems are anticipated in the next four weeks. Were the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed into May, Ryanair says: “We cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.” But that is a far cry from the entire continent’s aviation being grounded. Europe produces two-thirds of the jet fuel it needs. Most of the rest usually comes from the Middle East. I calculate the worst-case shortfall – if no other sources are found to replenish European tanks – as 23 per cent.
But airlines are smart: as I wrote, they could trim their schedules without too much pain for passengers with existing bookings. I don’t foresee having to replace my summer trip to the isles of Greece with another visit to the Channel Islands – this time by boat.
More entry-exit system pain
At Tirana airport last weekend, my outbound passport check took five seconds. British travellers, along with EU citizens and several other nationalities, are invited to use the eGates. You can exit the Albanian capital in as much time as it takes to say “Don’t smile, please” (grinning, as you might after a stay in this friendly and affordable nation, upsets the facial recognition software).
Yet across at Milan Linate, holidaymakers returning from ski trips and city breaks in Italy faced horrendous delays. More than 100 passengers booked on an easyJet flight to Manchester on Sunday were left behind. The crew waited as long as they could, the airline says, before they had to leave because of their duty hours.
The passengers I talked to blamed a combination of shambolic ground handling and the strange insistence by border officers that they provide fingerprints on their way out – even though the digital identifiers were supplied on arrival in accordance with the EU entry-exit system.
Max Hume and his family, from Leeds, had woken extra early on the last day of their ski holiday because the airline had warned them about potential delays. But arriving three hours early proved fruitless; the 34 people who actually made it onto the easyJet flight reportedly comprised holders of EU passports and passengers who had pretended to be heading to London (inexplicably those flights were prioritised for processing). Max spent £1,600 finding alternative flights via Luxembourg. As he waited to board the Luxair plane, he told me he felt “gutted, upset, let down, absolutely shattered and poorer”. The ski trip to Cervinia was, he said, “superb” – and I hope that is the part of the trip he remembers.
At least the passengers left behind in Milan had previously enjoyed an Italian escape. Celebrated children’s author Michael Rosen got no further than gate 91 at Stansted airport on Monday before he was turned away from his flight to Bologna. His passport does not run out until August. But the document was issued 10 years and a month ago, which makes it ineligible for travel to the European Union. The author of We’re Going on a Bear Hunt has done other travellers to the EU a favour by reminding them to check their passport validity ahead of the summer holidays.
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